Over the past decade, corporate decarbonization ambitions have come to be defined by the notion of a 1.5°C warming threshold. Dating back to the 2015 Paris Agreement, the scientific community identified a 1.5°C warming scenario as a critical point that, when exceeded, would herald deadlier climate change impacts. This became a significant benchmark for organizations, with the Science Based Targets Initiative recommending that decision-makers set goals to reach net zero by 2050 in order to limit warming to a 1.5°C scenario.
However, a 1.5°C global warming limit no longer seems realistic in 2024. Temperature rises from February 2023 to January 2024 already exceeded this limit, calling into question the utility of long-term corporate targets. As goals set with a 1.5°C scenario in mind are – unfortunately – only likely to become more outdated, corporate climate policies need to evolve to remain effective, realistic and relevant. Decision-makers must get ready for the next climate action paradigm shift and adapt claims-making accordingly: 2050 will no longer cut it. New policies have already been introduced by environmentally-conscious organization – expect, for example, to see a rise in Microsoft-style ‘carbon negative’ targets from decarbonization leaders.
The key takeaway? Corporate net zero targets must adapt to a 2.5°C warming scenario.
